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Thursday, September 20, 2012

Tax penalty to hit nearly 6M uninsured people, under ObamaCare


Nearly 6 million Americans -- most of them in the middle class -- will face a tax penalty for not carrying medical coverage once President Barack Obama's health care overhaul law is fully in place, congressional budget analysts said Wednesday.
The new estimate amounts to an inconvenient fact for the administration, a reminder of what critics see as broken promises.
The numbers from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office are significantly higher than a previous projection by the same office in 2010, shortly after the law passed.
The earlier estimate found 4 million people would be affected. The difference -- 2 million people-- represents a 50 percent increase.
That's still only a sliver of the population, given that more than 150 million people currently are covered by employer plans. Nonetheless, in his first campaign for the White House, Obama pledged not to raise taxes on individuals making less than $200,000 a year and couples making less than $250,000.
And the budget office analysis found that nearly 80 percent of those who'll face the penalty would be making up to or less than five times the federal poverty level. Currently that would work out to $55,850 or less for an individual and $115,250 or less for a family of four.
Average penalty: about $1,200 in 2016.
"The bad news and broken promises from Obamacare just keep piling up," said Rep. Dave Camp, R-Mich., chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, who wants to repeal the law.
There was no immediate response from the administration.
The budget office said most of the increase in its estimate is due to changes in underlying projections about the economy, incorporating the effects of new federal legislation, as well as higher unemployment and lower wages.
Starting in 2014, the new health care law requires virtually every legal resident of the U.S. to carry health insurance or face a tax penalty. The Supreme Court upheld Obama's law as constitutional in a 5-4 decision this summer, finding that the insurance mandate and the tax penalty enforcing it fall within the power of Congress to impose taxes. The penalty will be collected by the IRS, just like taxes.
The budget office said the penalty will raise $6.9 billion when fully in effect in 2016.
The new law will also provide government aid to help middle-class and low-income households afford coverage, the financial carrot that balances out the penalty.
Nonetheless, some people might still decide to remain uninsured because they object to government mandates or because they feel they would come out ahead financially even if they have to pay the penalty. Health insurance is expensive, with employer-provided family coverage averaging nearly $15,800 a year for a family and $4,300 for a single plan.
The Supreme Court allowed individual states to opt out of a major Medicaid expansion under the law. The Obama administration says it will exempt low-income people affected by state decisions from having to comply with the insurance mandate.
Most Americans will not have to worry about the insurance requirement since they already have coverage through employers, government programs like Medicare or by buying their own policies.
Many Republicans still regard the insurance mandate as unconstitutional and rue the day the Supreme Court upheld it.
However, the idea for an individual insurance requirement comes from Republican health care plans in the 1990s.
It's also a central element of the 2006 Massachusetts health care law signed by then-GOP Gov. Mitt Romney, now running against Obama and promising to repeal the federal law. The approach seems to have worked well in Massachusetts, with virtually all residents covered and dwindling numbers opting to pay the penalty instead.













--- Brian and Jennifer Vanderhoff North Fulton County REALTORS Vanderhoff Real Estate (770) 331-1206 --- Milton, GA Real Estate, Condos, Homes for Sale North Fulton County, GA Real Estate, Condos, Homes for Sale Forsyth, GA Real Estate, Condos, Homes for Sale ---

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# posted by Brian Vanderhoff @ 9:43 AM

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Niall Ferguson: Obama’s Gotta Go

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/08/19/niall-ferguson-on-why-barack-obama-needs-to-go.html





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# posted by Brian Vanderhoff @ 9:21 AM

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Obama Signs $26 Billion Bailout for Cash-Strapped States

President Obama signed a bill that he says will save hundreds of thousands of teacher and other public workers from unemployment.

Obama signed the measure into law just hours after the House passed it in a special one-day session during what would normally be the lawmakers' summer break.

The $26 billion bill would protect 300,000 teachers, police and others from election-year layoffs. Obama and Democrats said quick action was necessary before children return to classrooms minus teachers laid off because of budgetary crises in states that have been hard-hit by the recession.

Republicans called the bill a giveaway to teachers unions and an example of wasteful Washington spending.

The bill would be paid for mainly by closing a tax loophole used by multinational corporations and reducing food stamp benefits for the poor. It passed mainly along party lines by a vote of 247-161.

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Representatives scattered around the country and world for the August break were summoned back to Washington for the one-day session as Democrats stressed the need to act before children return to classrooms missing teachers laid off because of budgetary crises in the states.

Republicans saw it differently, calling the bill a giveaway to teachers' unions and another example of profligate Washington spending that Democrats would pay for in the coming election.

The Senate narrowly passed the measure last Thursday, after the House had begun its summer break, necessitating the special session.

The legislation provides $10 billion to school districts to rehire laid-off teachers or ensure that more teachers won't be let go before the new school year begins. The Education Department estimates that that could save 160,000 jobs.

Another $16 billion would extend for six months increased Medicaid payments to the states. That would free up money for states to meet other budget priorities, including keeping more than 150,000 police officers and other public workers on the payroll.

Some three-fifths of states have already factored in the federal money in drawing up their budgets for the current fiscal year. The National Governors Association, in a letter to congressional leaders, said the states' estimated budget shortfall for the 2010-12 period is $116 billion, and the extended Medicaid payments are "the best way to help states bridge the gap between their worst fiscal year and the beginning of recovery."

Not all governors were on board. Mississippi Republican Gov. Haley Barbour said in a statement that the bill would force his state to rewrite its current year budget and it would have to spend $50 million to $100 million to get the additional $98 million in education grants.

The $26 billion package is small compared to previous efforts to right the flailing economy through federal spending. But with the election approaching, the political stakes were high.

"Teachers, nurses and cops should not be used as pawns in a cynical political game" resulting from "the Democratic majority's failure to govern responsibly," said Rep. David Dreier, R-Calif.

"Where do the bailouts end?" asked Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio. "Are we going to bail out states next year and the year after that, too? At some point we've got to say, 'Enough is enough."'

Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee said his state of Washington would get funds to keep 3,000 teachers. Republicans, he charged, "think those billions of dollars for those corporate loopholes is simply more important than almost 3,000 teachers and classrooms in the state of Washington."

Rep. Jim McDermott, D-Calif., said Republicans ignore the fact that the bill is paid for and does not add to the deficit. "They want to do everything in their power to make certain that President Obama can't get this country going again. I think in November they are going to find it was a dumb policy."

The means of paying for the bill, a result of difficult negotiations in the Senate, were also contentious.

Republicans objected to raising some $10 billion by raising taxes on some U.S.-based multinational companies. Advocates for the poor were protesting a provision to accelerate the phasing out of an increase in food stamp payments implemented in last year's economic recovery bill. Under the measure, payments would return to pre-stimulus rates in 2014, saving almost $12 billion.

James Weill, president of the Food Research and Action Center, said that would be cutting benefits for some 40 million people now receiving food stamps. "Those families will be hungrier and less able to buy healthy diets," he said.

Weill's group estimated that a family of four that may now receive about $464 a month in food stamps stood to lose about $59 if the reductions take place. Democrats gave assurances that they would look for other ways to pay for the bill before the payment cuts go into effect in four years.

"The cutbacks in food stamps in the bill are plain wrong," said House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey, D-Wis.

American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees President Gerald McEntee rejected GOP arguments that the Democrats' primary purpose with the legislation was to reward their friends in organized labor. "We're in tough shape out there with these incredible holes in these state budgets. To the American people it's tremendously important and will give a little lift to the economy," he said of the legislation.

The House on Tuesday also passed a $600 million measure to boost security on the U.S.-Mexican border by hiring more enforcement officers and making greater use of unmanned surveillance drones. That bill still has to go back to the Senate

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# posted by Brian Vanderhoff @ 10:17 AM

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Raw Data: Obama Speech to American School Children

The following are prepared remarks from President Obama's Back to School Event scheduled for Tuesday in Arlington, Virginia:




The President: Hello everyone - how's everybody doing today? I'm here with students at Wakefield High School in Arlington, Virginia. And we've got students tuning in from all across America, kindergarten through twelfth grade. I'm glad you all could join us today.



I know that for many of you, today is the first day of school. And for those of you in kindergarten, or starting middle or high school, it's your first day in a new school, so it's understandable if you're a little nervous. I imagine there are some seniors out there who are feeling pretty good right now, with just one more year to go. And no matter what grade you're in, some of you are probably wishing it were still summer, and you could've stayed in bed just a little longer this morning.



I know that feeling. When I was young, my family lived in Indonesia for a few years, and my mother didn't have the money to send me where all the American kids went to school. So she decided to teach me extra lessons herself, Monday through Friday - at 4:30 in the morning. Now I wasn't too happy about getting up that early. A lot of times, I'd fall asleep right there at the kitchen table. But whenever I'd complain, my mother would just give me one of those looks and say, "This is no picnic for me either, buster."



So I know some of you are still adjusting to being back at school. But I'm here today because I have something important to discuss with you. I'm here because I want to talk with you about your education and what's expected of all of you in this new school year.



Now I've given a lot of speeches about education. And I've talked a lot about responsibility.

I've talked about your teachers' responsibility for inspiring you, and pushing you to learn. I've talked about your parents' responsibility for making sure you stay on track, and get your homework done, and don't spend every waking hour in front of the TV or with that Xbox.



I've talked a lot about your government's responsibility for setting high standards, supporting teachers and principals, and turning around schools that aren't working where students aren't getting the opportunities they deserve.



But at the end of the day, we can have the most dedicated teachers, the most supportive parents, and the best schools in the world - and none of it will matter unless all of you fulfill your responsibilities. Unless you show up to those schools; pay attention to those teachers; listen to your parents, grandparents and other adults; and put in the hard work it takes to succeed.

And that's what I want to focus on today: the responsibility each of you has for your education. I want to start with the responsibility you have to yourself.



Every single one of you has something you're good at. Every single one of you has something to offer. And you have a responsibility to yourself to discover what that is. That's the opportunity an education can provide.



Maybe you could be a good writer - maybe even good enough to write a book or articles in a newspaper - but you might not know it until you write a paper for your English class. Maybe you could be an innovator or an inventor - maybe even good enough to come up with the next iPhone or a new medicine or vaccine - but you might not know it until you do a project for your science class. Maybe you could be a mayor or a Senator or a Supreme Court Justice, but you might not know that until you join student government or the debate team.



And no matter what you want to do with your life - I guarantee that you'll need an education to do it. You want to be a doctor, or a teacher, or a police officer? You want to be a nurse or an architect, a lawyer or a member of our military? You're going to need a good education for every single one of those careers. You can't drop out of school and just drop into a good job. You've got to work for it and train for it and learn for it.



And this isn't just important for your own life and your own future. What you make of your education will decide nothing less than the future of this country. What you're learning in school today will determine whether we as a nation can meet our greatest challenges in the future.



You'll need the knowledge and problem-solving skills you learn in science and math to cure diseases like cancer and AIDS, and to develop new energy technologies and protect our environment. You'll need the insights and critical thinking skills you gain in history and social studies to fight poverty and homelessness, crime and discrimination, and make our nation more fair and more free. You'll need the creativity and ingenuity you develop in all your classes to build new companies that will create new jobs and boost our economy.



We need every single one of you to develop your talents, skills and intellect so you can help solve our most difficult problems. If you don't do that - if you quit on school - you're not just quitting on yourself, you're quitting on your country.



Now I know it's not always easy to do well in school. I know a lot of you have challenges in your lives right now that can make it hard to focus on your schoolwork.



I get it. I know what that's like. My father left my family when I was two years old, and I was raised by a single mother who struggled at times to pay the bills and wasn't always able to give us things the other kids had. There were times when I missed having a father in my life. There were times when I was lonely and felt like I didn't fit in.



So I wasn't always as focused as I should have been. I did some things I'm not proud of, and got in more trouble than I should have. And my life could have easily taken a turn for the worse.



But I was fortunate. I got a lot of second chances and had the opportunity to go to college, and law school, and follow my dreams. My wife, our First Lady Michelle Obama, has a similar story. Neither of her parents had gone to college, and they didn't have much. But they worked hard, and she worked hard, so that she could go to the best schools in this country.



Some of you might not have those advantages. Maybe you don't have adults in your life who give you the support that you need. Maybe someone in your family has lost their job, and there's not enough money to go around. Maybe you live in a neighborhood where you don't feel safe, or have friends who are pressuring you to do things you know aren't right.



But at the end of the day, the circumstances of your life - what you look like, where you come from, how much money you have, what you've got going on at home - that's no excuse for neglecting your homework or having a bad attitude. That's no excuse for talking back to your teacher, or cutting class, or dropping out of school. That's no excuse for not trying.



Where you are right now doesn't have to determine where you'll end up. No one's written your destiny for you. Here in America, you write your own destiny. You make your own future. That's what young people like you are doing every day, all across America.



Young people like Jazmin Perez, from Roma, Texas. Jazmin didn't speak English when she first started school. Hardly anyone in her hometown went to college, and neither of her parents had gone either. But she worked hard, earned good grades, got a scholarship to Brown University, and is now in graduate school, studying public health, on her way to being Dr. Jazmin Perez.



I'm thinking about Andoni Schultz, from Los Altos, California, who's fought brain cancer since he was three. He's endured all sorts of treatments and surgeries, one of which affected his memory, so it took him much longer - hundreds of extra hours - to do his schoolwork. But he never fell behind, and he's headed to college this fall.



And then there's Shantell Steve, from my hometown of Chicago, Illinois. Even when bouncing from foster home to foster home in the toughest neighborhoods, she managed to get a job at a local health center; start a program to keep young people out of gangs; and she's on track to graduate high school with honors and go on to college.



Jazmin, Andoni and Shantell aren't any different from any of you. They faced challenges in their lives just like you do. But they refused to give up. They chose to take responsibility for their education and set goals for themselves. And I expect all of you to do the same.



That's why today, I'm calling on each of you to set your own goals for your education - and to do everything you can to meet them. Your goal can be something as simple as doing all your homework, paying attention in class, or spending time each day reading a book.



Maybe you'll decide to get involved in an extracurricular activity, or volunteer in your community. Maybe you'll decide to stand up for kids who are being teased or bullied because of who they are or how they look, because you believe, like I do, that all kids deserve a safe environment to study and learn. Maybe you'll decide to take better care of yourself so you can be more ready to learn.



And along those lines, I hope you'll all wash your hands a lot, and stay home from school when you don't feel well, so we can keep people from getting the flu this fall and winter.



Whatever you resolve to do, I want you to commit to it. I want you to really work at it.

I know that sometimes, you get the sense from TV that you can be rich and successful without any hard work -- that your ticket to success is through rapping or basketball or being a reality TV star, when chances are, you're not going to be any of those things.



But the truth is, being successful is hard. You won't love every subject you study. You won't click with every teacher. Not every homework assignment will seem completely relevant to your life right this minute. And you won't necessarily succeed at everything the first time you try.



That's OK. Some of the most successful people in the world are the ones who've had the most failures. JK Rowling's first Harry Potter book was rejected twelve times before it was finally published. Michael Jordan was cut from his high school basketball team, and he lost hundreds of games and missed thousands of shots during his career. But he once said, "I have failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."



These people succeeded because they understand that you can't let your failures define you - you have to let them teach you. You have to let them show you what to do differently next time. If you get in trouble, that doesn't mean you're a troublemaker, it means you need to try harder to behave. If you get a bad grade, that doesn't mean you're stupid, it just means you need to spend more time studying.



No one's born being good at things, you become good at things through hard work. You're not a varsity athlete the first time you play a new sport. You don't hit every note the first time you sing a song. You've got to practice. It's the same with your schoolwork. You might have to do a math problem a few times before you get it right, or read something a few times before you understand it, or do a few drafts of a paper before it's good enough to hand in.



Don't be afraid to ask questions. Don't be afraid to ask for help when you need it. I do that every day. Asking for help isn't a sign of weakness, it's a sign of strength. It shows you have the courage to admit when you don't know something, and to learn something new. So find an adult you trust - a parent, grandparent or teacher; a coach or counselor - and ask them to help you stay on track to meet your goals.



And even when you're struggling, even when you're discouraged, and you feel like other people have given up on you - don't ever give up on yourself. Because when you give up on yourself, you give up on your country.



The story of America isn't about people who quit when things got tough. It's about people who kept going, who tried harder, who loved their country too much to do anything less than their best.



It's the story of students who sat where you sit 250 years ago, and went on to wage a revolution and found this nation. Students who sat where you sit 75 years ago who overcame a Depression and won a world war; who fought for civil rights and put a man on the moon. Students who sat where you sit 20 years ago who founded Google, Twitter and Facebook and changed the way we communicate with each other.



So today, I want to ask you, what's your contribution going to be? What problems are you going to solve? What discoveries will you make? What will a president who comes here in twenty or fifty or one hundred years say about what all of you did for this country? Your families, your teachers, and I are doing everything we can to make sure you have the education you need to answer these questions. I'm working hard to fix up your classrooms and get you the books, equipment and computers you need to learn. But you've got to do your part too.



So I expect you to get serious this year. I expect you to put your best effort into everything you do. I expect great things from each of you. So don't let us down - don't let your family or your country or yourself down. Make us all proud. I know you can do it.



Thank you, God bless you, and God bless America.





---
Brian and Jennifer Vanderhoff
North Fulton County REALTORS
Vanderhoff Real Estate
(770) 888-9269
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Milton, GA Real Estate, Condos, Homes for Sale
North Fulton County, GA Real Estate, Condos, Homes for Sale
Forsyth, GA Real Estate, Condos, Homes for Sale
---

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# posted by Brian Vanderhoff @ 9:15 AM

Monday, March 30, 2009

Obama Halts Detroit Bailout

The White House says neither GM nor Chrysler submitted acceptable plans to receive more bailout money, setting the stage for a crisis in Detroit and putting in motion what could be the final two months of two American auto giants.

The Obama administration, however, has decided not to require the automakers to immediately repay government loan money they previously received, since that would force both companies into Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Obama was set to make the announcement at 11 a.m. Monday in the White House's foyer.

Instead, the administration has decided to give Chrysler 30 days to work out a deal with Fiat and GM 60 days to come up with a new restructuring plan. Both companies will be provided with "some working capital" during those time periods.

A senior official said, "bankruptcy is not the goal," although there may be a "role for a court supervised process to effect the restructuring... different from Chapter 11."

Two additional parts of the plan include the government standing behind both car companies' warranties during the restructuring periods and the White House naming a Labor Department official to minimize the impact of restructuring on communities where auto plants are located, by coordinating support for workers and their families.

GM and Chrysler, which employ about 140,000 workers in the U.S., face a Tuesday deadline to submit completed restructuring plans, but neither company is expected to finish its work.

GM owes roughly $28 billion to bondholders. Chrysler owes about $7 billion in first- and second-term debt, mainly to banks. GM owes about $20 billion to its retiree health care trust, while Chrysler owes $10.6 billion.

Officials say GM and Chrysler were treated differently because of differences in the companies.

Neither company is viable now, but Chrysler is an almost purely domestic company that has passed through several ownership changes and is not viable as a standalone company. It was "never in position to pay down its debt." GM is a global company with "a more substantial collection of assets and brands," and its cars received a higher ranking from Consumer Reports.

Officials say they are "confident GM can survive and thrive as a company... but it will take more significant restructuring."

No decision has yet been made about how much working capital the government will provide GM during the restructuring period.

Chrysler's potential deal with Fiat has a couple of requirements: Fiat's ownership must initially be less than the 35% US Government stake in the company, and it's not to rise above 49% until the new loan money is fully repaid. Chrysler will be provided up to $6 billion in additional working capital during the restructuring period.

In his comments tomorrow, Obama "will be clear that greater sacrifices are required from all stakeholders," officials said.

His aides had substantial criticism of bondholders, saying not only did GM's bondholders fail to meet the targets for reducing the company's liability under the loan agreement, the loan agreement's target weren't adequate for the current market environment.

Officials confirmed GM CEO Rick Wagoner was asked to leave, but denied it was a condition for receiving more government aid. The official said "we wanted to start GM with a clean sheet of paper. We felt the change in leadership would assist that."

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# posted by Brian Vanderhoff @ 8:18 AM

Saturday, January 10, 2009

CDC Director Gerberding is Out, Government Email Says

The woman who led the nation's public health agency in a post-Sept. 11 world of bioterrorist fears is out, her resignation announced in a Friday night e-mail to employees.

Dr. Julie Gerberding has resigned as director of the Atlanta-based U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and will be replaced on an interim basis by a deputy as of Jan. 20, the day President-elect Barack Obama is inaugurated.

The e-mail obtained by The Associated Press that discloses the news was sent Friday night to employees of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the umbrella agency over CDC.

Although an HHS housecleaning has been expected with the new administration, Gerberding's fate was somewhat unclear. The first woman to head the agency, Gerberding led the CDC through a post-Sept. 11 world of bioterrorist fears and was considered an effective communicator with legislators and the public.

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# posted by Brian Vanderhoff @ 12:06 PM

Monday, December 31, 2007

Iowa Could Make Or Break Democrats

Iowa could make or break a Democratic candidate on Thursday. The question is, who?

While the state has long played a key role in choosing the Democratic presidential nominee, it has unparalleled influence this year, even after several larger states moved up their contests to try and muscle in. Those efforts have done little more than compress the calendar into a five-week sprint that ends with the multistate primary Feb. 5 -- strengthening Iowa's position as the leadoff caucus state rather than diminishing it.

Even New Hampshire, which holds the first primary of the season, has seen its once-mighty position diminished somewhat by Iowa's outsized role this time.

Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards are locked in a tight three-way contest in Iowa just days before voters attend their precinct caucuses on Thursday. And while all three have strong organizations in other early states, the best laid plans in those places could come apart depending on what happens in Iowa.

Only Obama and Clinton have raised enough campaign cash to be sure of being competitive through Feb. 5 and beyond. Edwards has agreed to accept federal matching funds, which will constrain the amount of money he is allowed to spend in each state.

Trailing in the polls, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd have also concentrated nearly all their resources in Iowa in hopes of scoring an upset.

The impact of unexpected news events, such as the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan, may further complicate a fluid situation.

Here's a look at what to expect in the next several weeks:

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IOWA -- Jan 3 (45 pledged delegates)

All six major Democratic candidates will blitz the state before next Thursday's caucuses. Hundreds of staff and volunteers from each campaign will flood likely caucus goers with mail, visits and phone calls. The television airwaves have been saturated for weeks with advertising.

Clinton, who has struggled in Iowa despite leading the field in national and most other state polls, has the most riding on the outcome here. A win could fuel a wave of momentum for the former first lady, while a loss, particularly to Obama, would shatter the notion of inevitability she has tried to project.

The New York senator is barnstorming the state and has deployed dozens of surrogates including her husband, former President Bill Clinton. Her closing argument -- "It's time to pick a president" -- underscores her central message: A candidate like Obama may inspire and move voters, but Clinton is the best prepared to actually do the job.

Obama and Edwards are competing to be the strongest "anti-Clinton" candidate in the field. Both are promising to bring fundamental change to Washington.

Edwards' base of support lies with caucus goers who were with him when he ran for president in 2004. Obama and Clinton are competing for newcomers -- hers are mostly older and female, his are younger and male.

Spending by outside groups has added a new dimension to the contest. EMILY'S List, AFSCME and the American Federation of Teachers are coordinating to boost Clinton through mail, TV and phone banks, while Edwards is receiving assistance from labor-backed groups headed by his 2004 campaign manager.

Obama has called on Edwards to ask the groups to cease their work in Iowa, and privately Obama's advisers fret that he is being hurt by the influx of spending on the other candidates' behalf.

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NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Jan. 8 (22 pledged delegates)

The candidates are reinforcing their organizations in New Hampshire to prepare for whatever verdict Iowa delivers.

The Clinton campaign, which had long counted on the state to be its firewall in the event of a less-than-stellar Iowa showing, has scrambled as her lead here has all but evaporated. The situation was further roiled when a prominent New Hampshire supporter, Bill Shaheen, stepped down as a campaign co-chairman after raising concerns about Obama's teenage drug use.

But Clinton has strong ties to the state thanks to her husband's 1992 and 1996 campaigns. Her organization numbers several hundred staff and volunteers in New Hampshire, methodically working phones and canvassing.

Obama strategists say the key to victory in the state lies with independents who can vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary and who polls show strongly oppose the Iraq war. The campaign is counting on a strong showing among these voters but is targeting traditional Democrats as well, making about 20,000 calls a night.

The Edwards campaign says it has four times the staff in New Hampshire that he had in 2004, when he finished a disappointing fourth. The campaign says its volunteers have knocked on 235,000 doors in the state, where 220,000 people voted in the primary four years ago.

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MICHIGAN -- Jan. 15 (128 pledged delegates; national party says the state will lose them all)

The Democratic candidates have agreed not to compete in Michigan because the state moved the date of its primary in violation of party rules. The Democratic National Committee has penalized the state by stripping all its delegates, but the eventual nominee may choose to restore the delegates prior to the convention next August.

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NEVADA -- Jan. 19 (25 pledged delegates)

Nevada will be the first state with delegates at stake after the New Hampshire primary and could play an important role if the race is still competitive coming out of Northeast.

While party leaders estimate only about 40,000 voters will take part in Nevada's caucuses, all the major candidates have spent considerable resources here in hopes of securing a win among a Western, heavily Hispanic electorate.

The campaigns are all counting on momentum and strong organization to fuel their efforts here. The candidates are basing their organization on an Iowa caucus model, building relationships precinct by precinct.

Richardson has spent more time here than any other candidate, hoping to parlay his Hispanic heritage and proximity as governor of neighboring New Mexico into a strong showing.

All the campaigns are vigorously competing for the backing of the Culinary Union, which represents some 60,000 service workers along the Las Vegas strip. The union will announce an endorsement in early January.

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SOUTH CAROLINA -- Jan. 26 (45 pledged delegates)

The three top-tier candidates have grounds to lay claim to South Carolina -- Obama and Clinton because of their popularity among black voters, Edwards because he was born in the state and won its primary four years ago.

Clinton and Obama have strong organizations in the state and have begun sustained television advertising recently. Both have made a concerted effort to woo black voters, who were 50 percent of primary voters in the state last time; they've run ads on black radio and sought endorsements from community leaders and black legislators.

Edwards has run television ads here since November and has made more campaign visits than Obama or Clinton. Polls show him running a distant third but slowly gaining ground.

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FLORIDA -- Jan. 29 (185 pledged delegates, may be lost)

Like Michigan, Florida has been penalized for moving its primary in violation of party rules. The national party has stripped the state of its delegates, and the candidates have pledged not to campaign in the state, although they have made several fundraising visits.

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MEGA TUESDAY -- Feb. 5 (At least 20 states and 2,075 pledged delegates)

Contests from Connecticut to California on this day could end up determining the Democratic nominee.

Clinton has seen her lead diminish somewhat in California, whose 441 delegates represent the day's largest prize. But the campaign is running generally strong there and is targeting absentee voters who can begin casting ballots Jan. 8.

The campaign is also building organizations in states holding caucuses on Feb. 5, including Minnesota, Colorado and Kansas.

Obama has bolstered efforts in California, and polls show him running strong in Georgia and Missouri. He's strongest in his home state of Illinois, while Clinton is dominant in her home state of New York and in nearby New Jersey.

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# posted by Brian Vanderhoff @ 12:31 PM


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